Vietnam’s Economic Outlook Brightens as HSBC Raises 2025 Growth Forecast to 7.9%

Vietnam’s growth story continues to attract global attention. In its latest report, HSBC revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9%, marking a significant increase from the previous estimate of 6.6%. The upward adjustment follows a record-breaking 8.23% GDP expansion in Q3 2025, the fastest pace among Southeast Asian economies.

This strong performance positions Vietnam as one of the region’s most resilient growth engines, even amid slowing global trade and rising geopolitical uncertainty. HSBC’s revised outlook reflects confidence in Vietnam’s robust export performance, recovering domestic demand, and accelerating infrastructure investment.

Vietnam Surpasses Regional Peers in Growth

Vietnam’s 8.23% growth in Q3 2025 exceeded not only domestic projections but also regional benchmarks. Neighboring economies such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia reported slower recoveries, underscoring Vietnam’s exceptional momentum.

Other financial institutions have issued more conservative forecasts — with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projecting 6.7%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 6.5%, and the World Bank (WB) at 6.6%. HSBC’s more optimistic projection signals renewed confidence from the international financial community in Vietnam’s policy direction and economic fundamentals.

According to HSBC analysts, Vietnam’s diversified export base, improving logistics capabilities, and ongoing industrial expansion continue to distinguish it as a manufacturing powerhouse in Asia.

Exports: The Core Driver of Vietnam’s Growth

Exports remain the cornerstone of Vietnam’s success story. Despite a volatile global environment, the country maintained double-digit export growth in key sectors, including electronics, footwear, textiles, and agricultural products. The export rebound reflects Vietnam’s growing integration into global value chains and its ability to attract major manufacturers seeking China+1 alternatives.

The trade surplus in Q3 doubled compared to the first half of the year — a reflection of efficient production capacity, improved infrastructure, and stable foreign investment inflows. Notably, export orders from major markets like the U.S., Japan, and the European Union continue to rise, signaling sustained demand for Vietnamese goods.

Vietnam’s expanding network of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, further strengthens its global competitiveness by providing preferential market access and attracting export-oriented industries.

Domestic Demand and Services Sector Rebound

While exports power external momentum, domestic demand has emerged as a key stabilizing force. Retail sales rose sharply in Q3 2025, supported by steady job creation, stable inflation, and a resurgence in consumer confidence. Urban centers such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Da Nang continue to lead the retail and service recovery.

The tourism industry, one of Vietnam’s hardest-hit sectors during the pandemic — has bounced back impressively. Visitor arrivals in 2025 are projected to surpass pre-COVID levels, thanks to expanded flight networks and streamlined visa policies. The tourism rebound contributes to growth across hospitality, retail, and transport sectors.

These developments not only boost short-term GDP but also reinforce long-term consumer market expansion, laying the foundation for Vietnam’s transformation into a more service-driven economy.

Infrastructure and Investment Momentum

A key contributor to Vietnam’s robust outlook lies in its infrastructure investment. The government has accelerated spending on major projects such as expressways, port expansions, and energy networks. These efforts are not only improving connectivity across northern and southern industrial hubs but also enhancing the country’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment (FDI).

Such large-scale projects often stimulate demand in construction materials, industrial real estate, and logistics facilities, sectors that continue to benefit from the government’s pro-investment stance.

Inflation Under Control, Risks Remain

Alongside the growth revision, HSBC also raised its inflation forecast to 3.3% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, levels still considered manageable within the government’s target range. This suggests that Vietnam’s monetary policy remains well-balanced, allowing room to support growth without triggering excessive price pressures.

However, HSBC cautioned that external trade shocks such as global supply chain disruptions or weakened demand from major partners like the U.S. and China, could pose short-term risks. Maintaining export competitiveness and macroeconomic stability will therefore remain key policy priorities.

Looking Ahead: A Stronger Foundation for Sustainable Growth

For 2026, HSBC expects Vietnam’s growth to moderate slightly to 6.7%, a healthy rate consistent with long-term sustainable development. The outlook reinforces confidence in Vietnam’s economic fundamentals: a young workforce, expanding industrial base, and deep integration with global trade networks.

From a real estate and investment perspective, this forecast signals continued demand for logistics parks, ready-built factories, and urban infrastructure, particularly in high-growth provinces such as Hai Phong, Bac Ninh.

The positive economic signals from HSBC’s latest forecast confirm that Vietnam remains on track to be a regional leader in manufacturing and trade, setting the stage for continued investor confidence into 2026 and beyond.

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